What if, Electric vehicle flops again?
An anti-thesis of EV story, give rise to another tiny story
Hi ideators,
After getting lot of feedback on the EV benefit story I did in Jan and the substantial gains in corresponding stocks of - IEX. Here I am again, starting the pool of beta ideaz with first post on the anti-thesis of that story, so let’s begin with the question.
What if the electric vehicle story fails to kick off?
You might say, are you mad? you are the one who convinced me about EV story, and now when I have skin in the game, you are coming with an anti-thesis. Unfair right?
Before I begin, check this video here on twitter shared by Vijay Kedia Sir.
So what we are thinking about EV is not new, it was existing well before its time. You might say that those were early days, but now after electric vehicle infra push and power house like Tesla coming into market, this time is going to be different! isn’t?
So let me quickly put forward the most important risk, that can drag the EV story longer than we expect, I am not listing the obvious one’s like low oil prices and poor infra… So what is that single point of contention.
The limited amount of lithium (battery raw material) deposit around the world.
The logic which we apply for limited amount of oil can be put forward here as well, and that’s the precise reason why the price of lithium are soaring again.
With whatever pushes in terms of infra, environmental concerns we are seeing, this single limitation can potentially derail the whole EV story (and that’s why after 10x gain in a year, i wasn’t bullish on Tesla anymore).
Off course, you can tell that there will be alternating technologies like dry cell batteries that can take the leap forward but we already know, they weren’t fit enough in the first place itself, so what can potentially happen next.
I did a bit of research and I found that, well I wasn’t the only one worried about this limitation, and government around the world are pushing alternative technologies for trial. I found one such effort by Govt of India, during its budget presentation.
From my notes of budget on 1st FEB 2021 :
Yeah, you guessed it right, the Hydrogen energy mission of Indian govt. was exactly aimed toward the anti-thesis of EV theory.
There are multiple reasons, why the hydrogen can become the alternative of futuristic energy and the single most is that…
It’s FREE in nature, no limitation on its abundance. Only technology needs to be upgraded.
And the research followed convinced me that technologist around the world are hoping this to be the future of energy. (Doing a google search is enough)
Hope you follow up this beta idea with more research on this theme before making an investment decision, and as I say, I have been wrong in the past and I can be wrong in future as well. So trust your judgement the most.
Until the time, I come with another trigger… keep investing!